![]() I will set aside the analyses of “what happened?” in order to focus on the more immediately pressing issue of “what happens next?” Scholars are notoriously poor at prediction a wise economist taught me early in my career to “never give a number and a date at the same time.” Nonetheless, and despite the fact that the election showed us to be weak prognosticators, prediction at such a dramatic, tense, and unexpected moment is too strong a temptation for many social scientists to resist. Whether social scientists are able to rethink cherished theories as a result of the November 8 surprise is a concern for us academics – but which explanations and predictions, if any, turn out to be most accurate is of concern to the nation and even the world. The divergence in scholars’ views is huge, with regard to both why voters supported Trump and what comes next.Like most people influenced by motivated reasoning, we tend to fit our new knowledge into the contours of what we thought we already knew. ![]()
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